Jordan is exception to regional unrest and spirit of Arab Spring

Jordan is a comfort zone in this war-wretched region, a land of relative stability that has survived the violent flowering of the Arab Spring although the kingdom faces the same problems afflicting its unsettled neighbours.

Asked how Jordan has, so far, avoided an explosion, a highly respected Jordanian statesman says, “We are accustomed to survive.” He adds, “We have had no balanced budget since the state was founded”, thanks to the Palestinians, Iraqis, Lebanese, Syrians and other refugees who have flowed into and settled in Jordan since it became an independent state in 1946.

Inspired by the dramatic images of hundreds of thousands of Egyptians demanding "Bread, freedom and justice" broadcast from Cairo's Tahrir Square during early 2011, thousands of Jordanians demonstrated in the capital and provincial towns. "Jordanians hoped change was coming: freedom, an end to corruption and a minimum level of social justice," says Lamis Andoni, chief editor of the London-based al-Araby al-Jedeed website.

However, millions did not march across the country as happened in Egypt and Jordanians did not call upon the king to abdicate while Tunisians, Egyptians, Yemenis and Syrians demanded the ousting of their republican presidents. King Abdullah promised reform and an end to corruption and appointed a new prime minister – and the streets emptied.

Choice of regime

Andoni continues, “Today people are just as angry and marginalised [as other Arabs] but they fear that the alternative [to the monarchy] will be Daesh [Islamic State] or a bloody regime like those of

Syria

,

Iraq

or Egypt. The difference between Jordanians and the rest is that they chose the Jordanian regime. Although there is still a lot of marginalisation, stability is a priority [for Jordanians].”

However, she adds, “The regime is using this to silence dissent and impose economic policies that do not solve any problems. It does not feel it needs to address problems.”

Analyst Oman Obeidat argues, "All the people – Jordanians and Palestinians – have interests in preventing an explosion" like those elsewhere. "No one wants to divide the country."

He asserts, "The regime is not a dictatorship. People can criticise the government . . . The Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, the US and Israel do not want an explosion in Jordan as the monarchies in the Arab world would be threatened. The Gulf countries support Jordan financially and politically."

These very countries along with Turkey have backed the Syrian opposition and rebels, both promoting and prolonging the civil war, and they have intervened in the conflicts in Iraq and Yemen.

Businessman Hassan Wahbeh says, “They want Jordan to be stable because it is a dumping ground” for people fleeing neighbouring conflicts.

Njood al-Majali, a radio journalist from the provincial town of Karak, where many Syrians have settled, says that the country's "tribal life promotes a strong attachment to the country. People have learnt a lesson from the people around: safety is more important than anything else . . . the threat of violence has strengthened unity and compelled people to show unity."

Jordanian unity was at least temporarily bolstered in January when Jordanians were shocked and outraged over the brutal burning dead by IS of captured air force pilot Muath al-Kasasbeh. But another source warns anger has waned among some ultra-conservative Salafis in the provinces who believe the cult could resolve their problems and establish “Islamic rule”. Young men from these have joined IS and gone to fight in Syria and, lately, Iraq.

There are other major reasons why Jordan did not face risings that have produced turmoil and reinvigorated authoritarianism elsewhere. The rule of law is largely applied in Jordan. The divide between rich and poor and corruption are not as flagrant as, for instance, in Egypt. The police, army and security services are professional and recruit from every family, clan and tribe from among Jordanians of tribal origin who are the bulwark of the regime and the state.

Neutralised Palestinians

The

Muslim Brotherhood

has been part of the establishment for more than half a century and does not act as a destabilising force. The potentially explosive Palestinian half of the population of 6.5 million has been politically “neutralised” by local, regional and international forces.

At present, King Abdullah is following the generally popular position that countering IS should be the regional priority rather than ousting Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad, a goal of his Gulf and Saudi allies, or joining the Saudi-led offensive against rebel tribesmen in Yemen. During a recent visit to the US, King Abdullah called the campaign against IS “our war” and pledged to increase Jordanian participation in US-led coalition air strikes against IS which he sees as the major threat to the area.

First of two articles on Jordan. Tomorrow: The impact on the country of the Syrian refugee crisis